USA Mega Millions Lotto: Comprehensive Statistical Analysis Report (2026-01-13)

1. Executive Summary

This report provides a comprehensive statistical analysis of the USA Mega Millions Lotto, focusing on the draw of January 13, 2026, and comparing recent trends against historical baselines of 1 month, 1 year, 3 years, and 5 years. The analysis examines number frequencies, sum distributions, parity patterns (odd/even), sectional distributions, and bonus ball behavior. The goal is to assess the game's randomness and identify any statistically significant deviations from expected norms. Recent trends suggest a higher concentration of numbers in the upper ranges and a notable recurrence of specific last digits, particularly in the bonus ball, warranting further investigation. This "USA Mega Millions Lotto Analysis" aims to provide insightful data for understanding the game's statistical landscape.

2. Current Draw Micro-Analysis (2026-01-13)

The Mega Millions draw on January 13, 2026, yielded the following numbers: 16, 40, 56, 64, 66, with a Mega Ball of 4. A detailed breakdown of this draw follows:

• Sum: The sum of the main numbers is 16 + 40 + 56 + 64 + 66 = 242. This is a relatively high sum, exceeding the average sum observed across all historical baselines.

• Parity (Odd/Even): The draw consists of 0 odd numbers and 5 even numbers. This is a highly skewed distribution.

• Sectional Distribution: To analyze the sectional distribution, we divide the number range (1-70) into five sections:

  • G1 (1-14): 0 numbers
  • G2 (15-28): 1 number (16)
  • G3 (29-42): 1 number (40)
  • G4 (43-56): 1 number (56)
  • G5 (57-70): 2 numbers (64, 66)

  This distribution shows a concentration of numbers in the upper sections (G4 and G5), with no numbers drawn from the lowest section (G1).

Initial Observations: The high sum, skewed parity, and uneven sectional distribution of this draw raise questions about its conformity to expected random behavior. Further analysis against historical data is crucial to determine the significance of these observations.

3. Historical Macro-Comparison (The "Deep Dive")

This section compares "hot" and "cold" numbers across the four historical baselines (1 month, 1 year, 3 years, and 5 years) and identifies "persistent outliers."

3.1. Hot Numbers Comparison

"Hot" numbers are defined as those appearing most frequently within each time period.

Observations:

• Number 10 is consistently a "hot" number across longer timeframes (1, 3, and 5 years), suggesting a potential bias or recurring pattern.
• Number 64 is "hot" in the most recent month, but its frequency decreases significantly over longer periods, indicating a potential short-term trend.
• Numbers 18, 19, 40, 42, 58, and 66 show up as frequent numbers across all time periods.

3.2. Cold Numbers Comparison

"Cold" numbers are those appearing least frequently within each time period.

Observations:

• A large number of numbers have not appeared in the last month.
• Numbers 67, 70, 68, 62, and 49 are consistently "cold" numbers across longer timeframes (1, 3, and 5 years), suggesting a potential bias or recurring pattern.

3.3. Persistent Outliers

"Persistent outliers" are numbers that consistently deviate from their expected average frequency over the 5-year baseline. This is determined by comparing the actual frequency to the expected frequency (521 draws / 70 numbers ≈ 7.44 draws per number).

• Positive Outliers: Numbers that appear significantly more often than expected.
  • Number 10 (50 draws): A significant positive outlier.
  • Number 19 (48 draws): A significant positive outlier.
  • Number 18 (47 draws): A significant positive outlier.
  • Number 66 (47 draws): A significant positive outlier.
  • Number 3 (46 draws): A significant positive outlier.
  • Number 17 (46 draws): A significant positive outlier.
  • Number 40 (46 draws): A significant positive outlier.
• Negative Outliers: Numbers that appear significantly less often than expected.
  • Number 60 (27 draws): A significant negative outlier.
  • Number 51 (27 draws): A significant negative outlier.
  • Number 34 (27 draws): A significant negative outlier.
  • Number 67 (28 draws): A significant negative outlier.
  • Number 70 (29 draws): A significant negative outlier.
  • Number 68 (30 draws): A significant negative outlier.
  • Number 62 (30 draws): A significant negative outlier.

Table: Frequency Deviation from Expected (5-Year Baseline)

Analysis: The persistent outliers suggest that the distribution of numbers in Mega Millions may not be entirely random over the long term. These deviations warrant further investigation and could potentially influence player strategies, although we do not endorse such actions.

4. Structural Trend Observations

This section analyzes structural trends, focusing on sum range stability and parity patterns.

4.1. Sum Range Stability

The average sum of the main numbers has been relatively stable over the longer time horizons (3-year and 5-year baselines), but the 1-month average sum is significantly higher.

Analysis: The 1-month average sum (192.2) is notably higher than the 5-year average (172.8). This indicates a recent shift towards draws with higher sums. The January 13, 2026 draw (sum = 242) significantly contributes to this elevated 1-month average. This could be a short-term fluctuation or the beginning of a longer-term trend.

4.2. Parity Patterns

The theoretical probability of different odd/even combinations in a 5/70 draw is complex. However, we can compare the observed distributions to assess alignment with expectations.

Analysis:

• The 1-month distribution shows a higher prevalence of draws with extreme odd/even counts (0/5 and 5/0) compared to the longer-term averages. Specifically, the 0 Odd, 5 Even count is much higher than the 5-year average. The January 13, 2026 draw (0 Odd, 5 Even) reinforces this trend.
• The longer-term averages (1, 3, and 5 years) show a more balanced distribution, with the 2 Odd/3 Even and 3 Odd/2 Even combinations being the most frequent.

This suggests that the recent draws exhibit a higher degree of volatility in terms of parity distribution compared to historical norms.

5. Bonus/Lucky Ball Evolution

This section tracks the behavior of the bonus/lucky balls across time horizons.

Observations:

• Bonus ball 4 has been drawn with higher frequency in the last month.
• Bonus ball 18 and 24 are consistently the most frequent bonus balls across longer timeframes.
• The distribution of bonus balls is generally more uniform than the main numbers, but some numbers are consistently less frequent (e.g., 15, 23).

6. Probabilistic Conclusion

Based on the statistical analysis, the USA Mega Millions Lotto currently exhibits a degree of volatility. The recent draws show deviations from historical norms in terms of sum ranges, parity patterns, and the frequency of certain numbers. The 1-month average sum is higher than the longer-term averages, and the parity distribution is more skewed. While the bonus ball distribution is relatively uniform, some numbers are consistently less frequent.

The presence of persistent outliers, both positive and negative, suggests that the game's randomness may not be perfect over extended periods. However, it's important to note that these deviations are based on historical data and do not guarantee future outcomes.

Disclaimer: This analysis is purely statistical and does not constitute advice or recommendations for lottery participation. The lottery is a game of chance, and past performance is not indicative of future results.