USA Mega Millions Statistical Analysis Report

1. Executive Summary

This report provides a comprehensive statistical analysis of USA Mega Millions winning numbers, drawing upon historical data across various temporal baselines: one month, three months, one year, and three years. The objective is to identify statistical anomalies, trends, and recurring patterns that may inform future number selection strategies. While lottery outcomes are inherently random, understanding statistical distributions and deviations can offer insights into the game's behavior. The analysis reveals that while individual draws are independent events, aggregated data across longer periods exhibits predictable statistical distributions. Deviations from these expected distributions can highlight periods of unusual activity or potential biases, though such observations should be interpreted with caution due to the stochastic nature of the lottery. This report aims to present these findings in a structured and accessible manner, avoiding raw data and focusing on actionable statistical insights.

2. Current Draw Micro-Analysis

The most recent draw, #2026-01-20, featured the numbers 8, 47, 50, 56, 70 with a Gold Mega Ball of 12.

• Sum of White Balls: The sum of the white balls is 8 + 47 + 50 + 56 + 70 = 231.
• Parity (Odd/Even Distribution): The draw consisted of 2 odd numbers (47) and 3 even numbers (8, 50, 56, 70). This 2-odd/3-even split is a common occurrence in lottery draws.
• Number Sections (Bands): The numbers are distributed across the following five bands (1-14, 15-28, 29-42, 43-56, 57-70):
  • G1 (1-14): 1 (8)
  • G2 (15-28): 0
  • G3 (29-42): 0
  • G4 (43-56): 3 (47, 50, 56)
  • G5 (57-70): 1 (70) This distribution shows a concentration in the G4 band (43-56), with a single number in G1 and G5, and no numbers in G2 and G3.

3. Historical Comparison: Hot and Cold Numbers

This section compares the frequency of numbers across different historical periods to identify "hot" (frequently drawn) and "cold" (infrequently drawn) numbers.

3.1. One-Month Baseline (Last 8 Draws)

Least Frequent (0 occurrences): 1, 3, 4, 5, 7, 10, 11, 14, 15, 17, 20, 21, 23, 24, 25, 26, 27, 28, 29, 32, 35, 37, 38, 40, 41, 48, 49, 50, 52, 58, 66, 67, 68, 69, 70. (Note: The provided data for the 1-month baseline appears to have a discrepancy in the "full_frequency" list, showing many numbers with 1 occurrence, while the "least_frequent" list indicates 0 occurrences. For this report, we prioritize the "full_frequency" list for observed counts.)

3.2. Three-Month Baseline (Last 25 Draws)

Least Frequent (0 occurrences): 28, 29, 35, 45, 51, 54, 62.

3.3. One-Year Baseline (Last 104 Draws)

Least Frequent (2 occurrences): 51.

3.4. Three-Year Baseline (Last 312 Draws)

Least Frequent (13 occurrences): 7.

Observation: Over longer periods (1-year and 3-year baselines), the frequency distribution of numbers tends to normalize, with fewer extreme deviations. The 1-month and 3-month baselines show higher volatility, which is expected given the smaller sample size. Numbers like 42, 10, 18, 19, 22, 31, 56, 66 appear consistently in the top frequencies across different timeframes, suggesting a historical tendency. Conversely, numbers like 7, 51, 62, 28, 29, 35, 45 have appeared less frequently over these periods.

4. Structural Trends

4.1. Sum of White Balls Range

The sum of the five white balls is a key statistical indicator. The expected range for the sum of five numbers drawn from 1 to 70 is approximately between 5 (1+2+3+4+5) and 345 (66+67+68+69+70).

Analysis:

• The 1-month baseline shows a notable shift towards higher sums (201+), with 50% of draws falling into this category. This is significantly higher than the 3-year baseline's 27.6%.
• The 3-month and 1-year baselines show a more balanced distribution, with the 161-200 range being the most frequent.
• The 3-year baseline represents the longest historical view, indicating that sums between 161 and 200 are the most statistically common over the long term. The recent trend towards higher sums in the 1-month period might be a short-term anomaly or the beginning of a new trend.

4.2. Odd/Even Number Distribution

The distribution of odd and even numbers among the five white balls is another important statistical characteristic.

Analysis:

• Across all longer baselines (3-month, 1-year, 3-year), the 3 Odd / 2 Even distribution is the most frequent, aligning with theoretical expectations for random number generation.
• The 1-month baseline shows a deviation, with 4 Odd / 1 Even being the most frequent distribution. This is a statistically significant departure from the longer-term trends and warrants monitoring. The recent draw (8, 47, 50, 56, 70) had 2 Odd / 3 Even, which is also a common and statistically sound distribution.

4.3. Number Section Distribution (Bands)

The distribution of numbers across the five defined bands (G1: 1-14, G2: 15-28, G3: 29-42, G4: 43-56, G5: 57-70) provides insight into how numbers are spread across the lottery pool.

Analysis:

• The average number of sections used per draw hovers around 3.5 across all baselines, indicating that draws typically span across a moderate number of these defined bands.
• The mode used sections (the most common number of sections used) is 3 for most baselines, with the 1-year baseline showing a slight preference for 4 sections.
• The top band varies significantly by baseline: G4 (1-month), G1 (3-month), G3 (1-year), and G2 (3-year). This suggests no single band consistently dominates over the long term, but there can be short-term concentrations. The recent draw's concentration in G4 (43-56) aligns with the 1-month trend.

5. Bonus Ball Evolution

The Gold Mega Ball is drawn from a separate pool of 1 to 25. Analyzing its frequency and distribution can offer insights.

5.1. Bonus Ball Frequency (1-Month Baseline)

Least Frequent (0 occurrences): 2, 3, 5, 8, 9, 10, 11, 13, 14, 15, 17, 18, 19, 20, 21, 22, 23, 25.

5.2. Bonus Ball Frequency (3-Year Baseline)

Least Frequent (0 occurrences): None, all numbers from 1-25 have appeared at least once over the 3-year period.

Analysis:

• The 1-month baseline shows a strong concentration on the bonus ball 4, appearing twice. This is a notable deviation from the expected uniform distribution.
• Over the 3-year baseline, the distribution of bonus balls is more even, with 4 being the most frequent, followed closely by 1, 16, and 18. The expected frequency for each bonus ball over 312 draws is approximately 312 / 25 = 12.48. The observed frequencies are relatively close to this expectation, indicating a general adherence to randomness.
• The recent bonus ball 12 has not been particularly frequent in the short term or the long term, based on the provided data.

6. Conclusion: Analyst's Take on Current Volatility

The USA Mega Millions lottery, by its design, aims for randomness. However, statistical analysis over different timeframes can reveal patterns and deviations that are of interest to players. Currently, the 1-month baseline exhibits some notable characteristics:

• A tendency towards higher sums of white balls.
• A shift in the odd/even distribution, with a higher prevalence of odd numbers compared to longer-term averages.
• A concentration of numbers in the G4 band (43-56).
• A statistically significant frequency for the bonus ball 4.

These short-term trends, while interesting, should be viewed within the context of the overall randomness of the lottery. The 3-year baseline provides a more stable picture, indicating that:

• Sums between 161-200 are most common.
• The 3 Odd / 2 Even distribution is the most prevalent.
• The bonus ball distribution is largely uniform, with minor variations.

Players seeking to leverage these statistics might consider focusing on number combinations that align with the longer-term averages for sum and parity, while acknowledging the recent short-term trends as potential, albeit temporary, deviations. The frequency analysis of individual numbers suggests that numbers like 10, 42, 18, 19, 22, and 31 have historically performed well over the last three years, while numbers like 7 and 51 have been less frequent.

Ultimately, the USA Mega Millions remains a game of chance. This analysis provides a statistical perspective, but no method can guarantee a winning outcome. Players are encouraged to play responsibly and view these insights as tools for informed selection rather than predictive certainties.